Todd Gordon, founder of Inside Edge Capital, joins CNBC’s ‘Power Lunch’ to discuss why he’s keeping an eye on shares of ON Holdings, the makers of Oncloud running shoes.
Todd Gordon, Inside Edge Capital founder, joins ‘Power Lunch’ to discuss the yen carry trade and its impact on the stock market.
Todd and Dom discuss the emerging Meme Stock Frenzy with companies like AMC and GME, looking back at lessons learned and strategizing for the current market environment.
Jeff Kilburg, Founder and CEO of KKM Financial, and Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital, discuss how they’re playing the markets with the major indexes near record highs.
NVDA has been all the news recently, but Todd has at least two other stocks on his radar that stand to benefit from the ongoing wave of AI adoption. See him explain the logic behind this on today’s CNBC Worldwide Exchange with Contessa Brewer.
Cava Group is one of the newer additions to our T.A.G. Portfolio, adding a 1% allocation on June 24th. Cava is a Mediterranean fast-casual restaurant chain and has been rapidly expanding in the past few years. Cava’s first location opened in 2010 and now has 341 stores in the U.S., with plans to add between 50-54 stores by the end of this year. They reported Q2 earnings on August 22nd, and beat analyst estimates on both the top and bottom lines.
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Last Monday, on August 5th, as the stock market selloff intensified and trillions of dollars of market capitalization was erased, the VIX spiked to levels we have only seen a few times in history. On Monday alone, the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7), who had been leading the market upward for most of this rally, lost over $1 trillion in value before the market even opened. The major indices fell just as much, with the Dow losing 1,100 points and the S&P 500 dropping almost 4%.
The VIX, or Volatility Index, is widely known as the “fear gauge” on Wall Street. It measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 options contracts over the next 30 days. As implied volatility in the options market increases, the VIX increases. Anytime there is uncertainty or bad news in the markets, the implied volatility in the options market rises, causing the VIX to spike. Because of this, the VIX is what’s known as a contraction indicator; when the market is gaining momentum, the VIX falls, and when fear hits the market or a downtrend emerges, the VIX rips upward. The VIX also serves as a gauge of how expensive portfolio insurance is; as the VIX rises, the price of options that fund managers use to hedge portfolios increases.
Typically, when the VIX is around 15, investors feel good about their investments, market sentiment is generally positive, and markets tend to move higher. From 15-25, this represents normal market activity, with both bears and bulls present, but the consensus remains relatively bullish. However, once the VIX hits levels above 25 or 30, the market sentiment begins to shift significantly, volatility spikes, and forecasts suggest possible economic downturns.
On Monday, in premarket trading, the VIX spiked to above 65. This level has only been seen two other times this century, both followed by a recession: the 2008 crash and the 2020 COVID crash. Not to draw conclusions, but it doesn’t seem like we are experiencing the same extreme market and economic conditions as in 2008 and 2020.
The 2008 financial crisis was triggered by a collapse of the housing market and failure of major financial institutions, leading to a severe global economic downturn. Similarly, the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 caused a sharp economic downturn as global lockdowns caused massive job losses and disrupted businesses and supply chains.
While the current spike in VIX is significant, it does not necessarily indicate a repeat of 2008 or 2020. The US economy has recovered from the pandemic and remains robust, and many companies are experiencing strong profit growth. Our founder Todd Gordon was on CNBC last week discussing this development and the so-called ‘yen carry trade’ that accompanied the stock market lower (and VIX higher). He tried to calm the hosts and viewers that this was simply a midsummer swoon likely to do with illiquid market conditions.
Another player in this huge VIX spike could be the seasonality of the market. We are in a summer market, where the moves tend to be outsized, and more traders are away from the desk. When volume is lower, the market tends to make erratic moves with little to no reason. Looking at the seasonality chart of the VIX and S&P 500 we can see the highest average month for the VIX is in August with an average reading of 8.9%
Looking at the S&P 500 seasonality study going back to 1950 August is a very flat month, but September is the weakest of the year. Did we pull that VIX spike and S&P seasonal weakness ahead to the first week in August?
In the coming weeks and months, it will be interesting to see how the VIX behaves. As of this writing on August 15th, the VIX has plummeted back down to a steady 15.4. Given the current environment, Nvidia earnings on August 28th, and the highly anticipated presidential election, it is very possible that the VIX will continue to fluctuate and remain elevated ensuring that we must keep our eye on the ball into year-end.
Trevor Ruberti (Intern, BU ’27) & Todd Gordon (Founder)
So far, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Apple have reported Q2 earnings, and each company has grown their CapEx substantially. The Mag 7 have spent more than anyone else on CapEx because they believe in AI’s future and building it into their products. Meta, in their earnings report, raised their annual CapEx estimate from $30-33 billion to $35-40 billion. From 2020 to 2023, Meta’s CapEx grew by 90%, from roughly $15 billion to almost $29 billion.
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Join Todd Gordon and Kyle Wasson of Inside Edge Capital as they cover the latest market pullback.
Inside Edge Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser located in Saratoga Springs, NY may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements.
This presentation is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding Inside Edge Capital, LLC’s investment advisory services. Accordingly, the information in this presentation should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as a substitute for personalized individual advice from Inside Edge Capital, LLC. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Any client examples were hypothetical and used to demonstrate a concept.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by Inside Edge Capital, LLC), or product referenced directly or indirectly in this presentation, will be profitable. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, & there can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy will be suitable for a client’s or prospective client’s investment portfolio.
Various indexes were chosen that are generally recognized as indicators or representation of the stock market in general. Indices are typically not available for direct investment, are unmanaged and do not include fees or expenses. Some indices may also not reflect reinvestment of dividends.
Howmet Aerospace is one of the newer additions to our T.A.G. Portfolio, adding a 1% allocation on June 24th. Howmet specializes in a variety of engineered metal products, supplying parts for both the aerospace and transportation industries. Their main products include parts for jets and jet engines, as well as wheels and other systems for commercial trucks. They reported Q2 earnings on July 30th, and beat analyst estimates on both the top and bottom lines.
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Looking at the market right now, we are at an inflection point in the short term. Growth and tech stocks have been leading the market and should continue to do so in the future. There is still tremendous long-term value in these stocks in terms of expected EPS growth and profitability. However, in the short term, it is possible that we could be rotating into value stocks and small caps.
As companies began reporting second-quarter earnings a few days ago, the market outlook was positive, particularly for the S&P 500. Of the 14% of companies that had reported earnings as of Friday, 80% of them reported actual EPS above analyst estimates. The 10-year average of companies beating earnings is 74%, and the 5-year average is 77%, pointing to a strong start to the earnings season. However, more recent earnings have not followed this trend.
In particular, the Magnificent 7’s dominance is being called into question. The Magnificent 7 are seven innovative tech stocks that have performed well and driven market trends and innovation. Going into earnings season, four of the Magnificent 7 were expected to see an average earnings growth of 56.4%. Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet, in that order, are expected to be the top four contributors to year-over-year earnings growth. However, Google’s earnings report did not impress investors, even though they beat on top and bottom lines. Firstly, Google’s capital expenditures have been increasing and cash flows decreasing because of the AI buildout, which has investors worried. Additionally, YouTube ad revenue faltered, which is a very worrying sign for investors. This is generally considered a sign of a weakening consumer, as businesses have less money to advertise and consumers have less money to spend.
Additionally, Tesla’s EPS and sales fell short of earnings estimates. Following these reports, Tesla’s stock sharply fell as investors grappled with its loss of market share in the EV space and disappointing earnings. In total, the Magnificent 7 lost over $600 billion in market cap on Wednesday alone.
We see quite the opposite in the Russell 2000, an index made up of small caps, that many fund managers believe the market is rotating into. Many fund managers see the rising performance of this index as evidence of a rotation into small caps. However, 849 of the roughly 1,950 companies that reported earnings in the Russell 2000 have reported a negative EPS trailing 12 months. It remains to be seen if this rotation is going to become a trend, or if it is simply a result of institutional investors closing their short positions on the Russell.
This earnings season will be an inflection point, possibly marking a significant change in what has been driving the market. Will the Mag 7 continue to lead the market upward, or will earnings continue to disappoint and drag us down? Furthermore, is the shift into small caps and value stocks indicative of a genuine market rotation? With so many unknowns this earnings season, it will be interesting to see which direction the market will move in the coming weeks.
Trevor Ruberti
Intern, BU ’27
Join Todd Gordon and Kyle Wasson of Inside Edge Capital as they take you through all areas of the market, the economy, and the geopolitical landscape.
Inside Edge Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser located in Saratoga Springs, NY may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements.
This presentation is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding Inside Edge Capital, LLC’s investment advisory services. Accordingly, the information in this presentation should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as a substitute for personalized individual advice from Inside Edge Capital, LLC. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Any client examples were hypothetical and used to demonstrate a concept.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by Inside Edge Capital, LLC), or product referenced directly or indirectly in this presentation, will be profitable. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, & there can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy will be suitable for a client’s or prospective client’s investment portfolio.
Various indexes were chosen that are generally recognized as indicators or representation of the stock market in general. Indices are typically not available for direct investment, are unmanaged and do not include fees or expenses. Some indices may also not reflect reinvestment of dividends.
In our short reign as a global superpower, American companies have driven innovation across the globe attracting top talent to work in the U.S., which furthers our competitive advantage. As a result, the sheer size of the U.S. market capitalization relative to other economies is astounding. Specifically, the disparity between some of the top American companies’ market capitalizations and entire countries’ market capitalizations is staggering.
We will let the chart speak for itself, but a few things must be briefly mentioned. The total U.S. market capitalization of $54 trillion compared to other economies really puts into perspective just how much larger the U.S. market is. Well-established countries like the UAE, Denmark, Italy, and many more aren’t even at a market capitalization of $1 trillion, while the US is over 50 times larger.
(Click Image To Enlarge)
Additionally, Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft each have market capitalizations of around $3 trillion, placing them individually above the market capitalization of all but five countries. Relatively speaking, we have seen all three of these companies gain or lose market value in one day equivalent to the entire GDP of Finland or Turkey.
The size of the U.S. market and specifically American tech companies is something that the U.S. can use to its advantage in the coming years, at the advent of the massive AI push and substantial technological innovation. Nvidia’s massive run has shown us AI is not just a quickly fading market development, and when you look at Nvidia’s earnings projections showing top-line growth of around 100% for consecutive years in the future, we start to see just how much potential there is.
Looking at the chart again, we can see that if there is substantial growth in the technology world, it will most likely stem from the U.S. as all of the world’s big tech companies are here. Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia alone combine for a market capitalization of roughly $9.5 trillion, and the only country (besides the U.S.) with a market capitalization of $9.5 trillion and above is China sitting just above $10 trillion. With the AI boom progressing, it is very probable that the U.S. will continue to drive this innovation. This will result in huge flows of capital to the U.S. market and greater returns on domestic investments.
Another development in the world economy that the U.S. is positioned well to benefit from is the global labor shortage. It is estimated that by the end of this decade, the world will be short 80 million workers across various industries. In terms of pay, this is just about three trillion dollars in unpaid salaries. With the U.S.’s massive market and tech companies driving global innovation, the U.S. is positioned to fulfill this labor shortage not with workers, but with digital solutions. The three trillion in unpaid wages will mean that much more revenue in the future for tech companies, driving profitability even further.
When looking forward to the developments of the coming years, it is apparent to us that the U.S. has positioned itself very well to thrive. AI innovation is already driven by American companies, and the U.S. has all the tools to fulfill the coming labor shortage. Because of its massive market capitalization, technological changes in the next few years will all flow through the U.S., and position the U.S. market perfectly to thrive.
Trevor Ruberti
Intern, BU ’27
In this update, we cover the market correction that has emerged the last two weeks following 2024’s earlier historical bull run. We also take a look at two potential headwinds: interest rates and the Iran/Israel conflict.
Inside Edge Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser located in Saratoga Springs, NY may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements.
This presentation is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding Inside Edge Capital, LLC’s investment advisory services. Accordingly, the information in this presentation should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as a substitute for personalized individual advice from Inside Edge Capital, LLC. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Any client examples were hypothetical and used to demonstrate a concept.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by Inside Edge Capital, LLC), or product referenced directly or indirectly in this presentation, will be profitable. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, & there can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy will be suitable for a client’s or prospective client’s investment portfolio.
Various indexes were chosen that are generally recognized as indicators or representation of the stock market in general. Indices are typically not available for direct investment, are unmanaged and do not include fees or expenses. Some indices may also not reflect reinvestment of dividends.
Uber broke above former all-time highs of $64.65 on above average volume and does not seem to be looking back. Some are concerned about the business model, excessive valuation, and other factors but it’s been a core holding in our growth model at Inside Edge Capital and I am looking to increase my position size.
Moving down to the daily chart you’ll notice that in Q4 of ‘23 Uber initially was rejected from the all-time highs of $64.65 and retreated in a 9.9% decline. After regathering itself the stock mounted another attack on the key breakout level, achieved it, and traded as high as $81.86.
Since then another pullback has developed and using a concept called symmetrical price projections we see that another 9.9% decline may have just completed. It’s amazing how often these symmetrical percent moves happen in the charts when you start to look for them. The anticipated support level was $73.53 and we closed Tuesday at $77.05.
We hold a 3% allocation of UBER (established 1% in Feb ‘23, added 1% in Nov ‘23, added 1% in Feb ‘24) and are looking to add another 1-to-2% in the coming week. Once we get through the Fed meeting and, should the market stabilize, we will consider increasing our position.
Is the technical breakout corroborated by the fundamental story. I think the answer is yes. Yes to what the markets expect of them and yes to what the company has demonstrated to us.
UBER has come a long way in a short period of time as a publicly traded company. In just 5 years the business model has evolved from just a digital ride hailing company to also offer delivery, freight, and advertising.
Looking backwards, they used to burn a lot of cash! They were burning as much as $5 billion in 2020, $3 billion in 2021, but in 2022 actually went to a positive $2 billion in free cash flow. It approached positive EBITDA in 2022 and achieved it in 2023.
The positive cash flow was a result of fewer ride incentives offered and a smaller marketing spend as the brand recognition began to carry the company. How often do you say “do you want to Lyft to the restaurant”? In fact, in about 10 minutes I’m going to suggest to my wife that we “Uber” to the restaurant to celebrate her birthday!
Looking ahead analysts are calling for 40% EPS growth to $1.22 in earnings in 2024 compared to last year’s earnings. That figure gives us a forward multiple of 63 times earnings. Not cheap!
I think the heavy valuation reflects the company’s vision of autonomous transports for both transportation and delivery. The company has partnered with several autonomous driving companies including Nuro, Waymo, Aptiv, and Hyundai. They are also collaborating with Toyota to move further into autonomous ride sharing and are using Nvidia’s AI technology to power the computing systems in their autonomous driving efforts.
In this update, we cover this week’s earnings, MSCI All-World Index closing at new all-time highs, U.S. consumer sentiment, USD, and gold.
Inside Edge Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser located in Saratoga Springs, NY may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements.
This presentation is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding Inside Edge Capital, LLC’s investment advisory services. Accordingly, the information in this presentation should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as a substitute for personalized individual advice from Inside Edge Capital, LLC. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Any client examples were hypothetical and used to demonstrate a concept.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by Inside Edge Capital, LLC), or product referenced directly or indirectly in this presentation, will be profitable. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, & there can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy will be suitable for a client’s or prospective client’s investment portfolio.
Various indexes were chosen that are generally recognized as indicators or representation of the stock market in general. Indices are typically not available for direct investment, are unmanaged and do not include fees or expenses. Some indices may also not reflect reinvestment of dividends.
In this weeks’ video we cover everything in this market from the technicals of the indexes, the Powell rug pull on interest rates, Q4 earnings update, and our latest client portfolio re-balance / re-allocation.
IEC Clients, please check your emails for the full video report.
Inside Edge Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser located in Saratoga Springs, NY may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements.
This presentation is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding Inside Edge Capital, LLC’s investment advisory services. Accordingly, the information in this presentation should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as a substitute for personalized individual advice from Inside Edge Capital, LLC. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Any client examples were hypothetical and used to demonstrate a concept.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by Inside Edge Capital, LLC), or product referenced directly or indirectly in this presentation, will be profitable. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, & there can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy will be suitable for a client’s or prospective client’s investment portfolio.
Various indexes were chosen that are generally recognized as indicators or representation of the stock market in general. Indices are typically not available for direct investment, are unmanaged and do not include fees or expenses. Some indices may also not reflect reinvestment of dividends.
Hello Investors! Please find the latest investor market and portfolio update below. In this video, we cover the 5 economic concerns we have been hearing a lot about:
Consumer Confidence, Unemployment, Housing Market, US Government’s Fiscal Status, Yield Curve Inversion
Are these valid concerns, and how are we going to handle them for our investors?
IEC Clients, please check your emails for the full video report.
Inside Edge Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser located in Saratoga Springs, NY may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements.
This presentation is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding Inside Edge Capital, LLC’s investment advisory services. Accordingly, the information in this presentation should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as a substitute for personalized individual advice from Inside Edge Capital, LLC. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Any client examples were hypothetical and used to demonstrate a concept.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by Inside Edge Capital, LLC), or product referenced directly or indirectly in this presentation, will be profitable. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, & there can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy will be suitable for a client’s or prospective client’s investment portfolio.
Various indexes were chosen that are generally recognized as indicators or representation of the stock market in general. Indices are typically not available for direct investment, are unmanaged and do not include fees or expenses. Some indices may also not reflect reinvestment of dividends.
Hello Investors! Please find the latest investor market and portfolio update below, where we review 2023 and look forward to 2024.
Broadening Market Rally
*Small caps continuing to increase
Mega Cap Still Appreciating/NVDA
*Will the Big 7 stocks continue to motor?
Fed Policy and the Economy
*How will Fed policy affect capital markets in 2024?
Correction coming in 1st half ’24
*How we plan to handle a ‘possible’ correction
IEC Clients, check your emails for the full video report.
Inside Edge Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser located in Saratoga Springs, NY may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements.
This presentation is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding Inside Edge Capital, LLC’s investment advisory services. Accordingly, the information in this presentation should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as a substitute for personalized individual advice from Inside Edge Capital, LLC. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Any client examples were hypothetical and used to demonstrate a concept.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by Inside Edge Capital, LLC), or product referenced directly or indirectly in this presentation, will be profitable. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, & there can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy will be suitable for a client’s or prospective client’s investment portfolio.
Various indexes were chosen that are generally recognized as indicators or representation of the stock market in general. Indices are typically not available for direct investment, are unmanaged and do not include fees or expenses. Some indices may also not reflect reinvestment of dividends.
Technology and semiconductor stocks are seeing all-time highs, we’ve seen the second highest close in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and people are still claiming this is a bear market? Todd joins fellow unapologetic bulls JD, Steve and Spencer on StockMarketTV.
Hello Investors! Please find the latest investor market and portfolio update below were we cover the latest market developments and the significant portfolio adjustments and updates done this week.
US Fiscal Debt and Rates
*US Debt Downgrade
*Powell still taking hard line against inflation
Q3 and Q4 Earnings Update
*Q3 Earnings
*Q4 Earnings Outlook
Portfolio Updates
*Latest Portfolio Updates and Adjustments
*Significant Portfolio Turnover
Please note this is intended for clients of Inside Edge Capital only.
Inside Edge Capital, LLC is a registered investment adviser located in Saratoga Springs, NY may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements.
This presentation is limited to the dissemination of general information regarding Inside Edge Capital, LLC’s investment advisory services. Accordingly, the information in this presentation should not be construed, in any manner whatsoever, as a substitute for personalized individual advice from Inside Edge Capital, LLC. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Any client examples were hypothetical and used to demonstrate a concept.
Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended by Inside Edge Capital, LLC), or product referenced directly or indirectly in this presentation, will be profitable. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, & there can be no assurance that any specific investment or investment strategy will be suitable for a client’s or prospective client’s investment portfolio.
Various indexes were chosen that are generally recognized as indicators or representation of the stock market in general. Indices are typically not available for direct investment, are unmanaged and do not include fees or expenses. Some indices may also not reflect reinvestment of dividends.
Investor sentiment and market positioning crowded far to one side of the boat with moves in US bond yields in the past 2 years. Is that move being reversed and is the prevailing wisdom about the yield curve coming out of inversion and the impact on the stock market wrong?
PDF slides: 20231024_InvestorUpdate
When you drop a rubber ball on the ground, you expect that the harder it falls, the higher the ball will rebound. Similarly, we hope for the same during recessions. When a recession occurs, the deeper the drop-off, the stronger bounce-back we need.
During the 2008 recession, annual GDP growth fell by over 5%. In response, we needed GDP growth above 5% just to return to our Potential GDP over the typical 2-3 year long recovery period. With GDP growth coming in between 2-3%, it took America a decade to catch up to its potential GDP.
We see the definition of an economic recovery as not only reaching our maximum potential GDP, or the highest level of growth that can be sustained over the long-term, but as America getting itself off of the Fed’s medicine that helped us when we needed it. That medicine, when the economy has slowed, is the Federal Reserve’s low interest rate monetary policy.
Low interest rates certainly help Americans during downturns, allowing debtors to re-finance mortgages and other debt. But, at the same time, it hurts savers because they receive less interest. The fact is Americans receive twice as much interest as we pay (if you exclude the government). This means that low interest rates hurt individual Americans twice as much as it helps. Over the short-term, low rates certainly help everyone’s liquidity and spur investment, but over the long-term they can limit growth.
What has this meant to investors? Yields on high-quality bonds dropped significantly. For example, in 2001 it would have taken 14 years for an investment in 10-year Treasury bonds to double. In 2016 it would take 45 years, longer than most investors’ working lives. Meanwhile, stocks and other assets appreciated. However, while 65% of Americans owned stock in 2007, only 52% owned stocks in 2016. During low interest rate periods, you would hope for the opposite to have occurred. That might be explained by the toll that a downturn like that has on investor psychology, but fact remains it’s far from the optimal asset allocation.
During the short-lived 2020 recession which accompanied the onset of the pandemic, the Federal Reserve had a new set of circumstances. Rising inflation prevented the Federal Reserve from using low interest rate policy. So the federal government responded in early-2020 with a massive amount of federal spending and causing GDP to catch up to Potential GDP within two years. Inflation
While these markets were unfavorable to bond holders, what will happen to the bond prices paying over 5% when and if treasury rates drop again, as we saw in 2011, making those 5% bonds very attractive looking to investors searching for yield?
Given the perpetual nature of wealth investing, it is becoming clear that the value of financial planning may be worth as much or more than the value of your investment selection during sluggish economic recoveries like we are currently experiencing.
In other words, the value of advice isn’t just putting you in a diversified portfolio, it’s keeping you there. That means limiting investment costs like panic selling (and the taxes it creates). An investment allocation based on a long-term strategy that’s tailored to the level of investment risk you are comfortable accepting and level of risk you need to meet your goals is not only effective for these market cycles, it provides confidence and peace of mind over the long-term.
Tax season might be over, but you might be wondering how long you should hold onto your tax returns and related documents. Before you run to the shredder, read this article and reach out to a tax professional if you have specific questions.
In most cases, you should hold onto prior year tax returns for three years. During this time, the IRS can question items on your return or bill you for additional taxes. You can also elect to amend a prior year return for refunds within this timeframe. While three years is reasonable, remember that if your return omits more than 25% of your income, the IRS can go back up to six years, and there’s no time limit for fraud cases. State tax return retention requirements may vary.
For asset records, always consider whether you might need them later. For real estate owners, keeping records that establish the adjusted basis of your properties is vital. Retain settlement sheets from property purchases and receipts for property improvements. This record-keeping will simplify calculating the adjusted basis of your real estate investments.
For securities transactions, keep purchase documents for taxable mutual funds, stocks, and the like. While investment custodians have improved with their cost basis record keeping, having original purchase documents can save a headache with securities who have a history of stock splits, dividend reinvestments, and nontaxable distributions.
If you’ve made nondeductible IRA contributions or post-tax 401(k) contributions, keep records until three years after you deplete these accounts. File Form 8606 for nondeductible IRA contributions and retain copies of Form 8606 and your 1040s for each year you make such contributions. Hold on to Form 5498 or similar statements reflecting IRA payouts.
For inherited property, you’ll need the value of the asset on the date-of-death, and for gifted property, retain records of the donor’s cost until three years after you sell the asset.
Businesses should hold payroll tax records for at least four years after the due date for filing Form 941 for the fourth quarter of a given year. These records include wage amounts, payment dates, employee data, copies of W-4 forms, and details of tax deposits. Additionally, keep records of tips earned by workers and fringe benefits provided to employees.
If your business deals with assets and depreciation, be prepared to retain those records for decades.
So, before you do a paperwork purge, take a step back and consider that keeping the right records can keep you on the right track. And, as always, reach out to your CPA or tax professional with specific questions.
When it comes to managing healthcare costs and building long-term savings, few tools offer the versatility and tax benefits of a Health Savings Account (HSA). Often underutilized, HSAs provide a unique opportunity not just to pay for out-of-pocket healthcare expenses, but also to grow a tax-advantaged nest egg for retirement.
HSAs can be used to cover a broad array of health-related expenses. These including basic over-the-counter expenses, dental and vision care (exams, glasses, contacts), specific chiropractic and acupuncture treatments, and premiums for long-term care insurance up to IRS limits. Most HSA plans come with a debit card that you can use freely and as needed at your doctor’s office or pharmacy.
What sets HSAs apart from other accounts is their “triple tax advantage”: contributions are tax-deductible, funds grow tax-free, and withdrawals used for qualified medical expenses are also tax-free. There are currently no other account types we are aware of which offer all three of these tax advantages.
Furthermore, many HSAs offer investment options in stocks, bonds, or mutual funds. This allows you to invest your HSA balance for growth over time, creating a substantial, tax-free asset for the future.
For example, if a couple maximizes their HSA contributions each year, investing $8,300 annually at an 8% average return, their HSA could grow to roughly $784,024 over 30 years. In an account taxed at 15% with the same contribution rate and return, the account would be worth $656,421, over $100,000 less.
One unique feature of HSAs is the flexibility to reimburse yourself for medical expenses at any time. This can provide a great planning opportunity. For example, let’s say you have a medical expense today. Instead of using your HSA to pay for it now, you can choose to pay out-of-pocket, save your receipt, and keep your HSA funds invested. Later, perhaps years down the line, you can choose to withdraw money from your HSA to “reimburse” yourself for that past expense, essentially providing a tax-free distribution at your discretion up to the value of all un-reimbursed past expenses. This approach requires diligent record-keeping, so it’s helpful to store receipts for all medical expenses in a secure digital folder or dedicated file.
Once you reach age 65, HSAs become even more versatile. You can use them to cover non-medical expenses, although these withdrawals will be taxed as ordinary income, similar to a traditional IRA withdrawal. Qualified medical expenses remain tax-free after age 65, providing an effective way to manage healthcare costs in retirement. And, if you retire before becoming eligible for Medicare, HSA funds can even be used to pay for COBRA or other qualified health insurance premiums.
For those eligible, HSAs can serve as a powerful investment vehicle. If you’re enrolled in a high-deductible health insurance plan like most Americans are, you are eligible to open an HSA and start taking advantage of its benefits. In 2025, the IRS defines a high-deductible plan as one with a minimum health insurance deductible of $1,650 for individuals or $3,300 for families.
With thoughtful planning, an HSA can become a long-term asset in your financial toolkit. By maximizing your annual contributions, using its tax benefits strategically, investing for growth, and managing reimbursements effectively, you can build a lifelong reserve that supports both your health and financial well-being.
As we approach the end of the year, now’s the perfect time to evaluate your savings strategy. Whether you’ve been consistently contributing or still have room to make a few final deposits, year-end is an ideal time to maximize your accounts. It’s also a great opportunity to set a solid plan for the upcoming year.
For 2024, consider ramping up your contributions to fully maximize tax-advantaged accounts before the calendar year closes. For example, many 401(k) plans allow you to increase contributions to a high percentage in December to shovel more into your retirement savings. This can be a strategic move if you haven’t yet hit the annual limit. There are accounts like HSAs and IRAs that give you the option to contribute until the tax filing deadline, providing a bit of extra flexibility. But if you’re aiming to get ahead on next year’s savings goals, contributing any extra funds in your checking account now will give you a strong start in 2025.
Starting in 2025, retirement contribution limits are increasing, allowing many people to save even more on a tax-deferred basis:
One of the best ways to maximize your retirement savings is through automatic monthly contributions. By setting aside a set amount each month, you’re essentially “paying your future self” before covering other expenses. This disciplined, automatic approach smooths out market fluctuations and consistently builds toward your long-term goals through dollar-cost averaging.
Layering your savings across various types of accounts can provide you with the best return and tax advantages. Here’s a priority list to consider:
As the year wraps up, take a moment to evaluate your contributions, assess the progress you’ve made, and make any needed adjustments for an even stronger financial future. Even small tweaks to your contribution strategy now can lead to significant gains down the road. Remember this line from Warren Buffett: “Do not save what is left after spending, but spend what is left after saving.” By putting your future first, you’re setting yourself up for financial security and freedom. Happy saving!
Anyone who has invested for retirement knows the frustration of watching a well-thought-out plan struggle under real-world pressure. Like a golfer aiming to replicate a smooth swing from the driving range to the course, it’s easy for investors to see calm, rational planning give way to stress and reactive decisions when it’s time to execute their strategy in a volatile market.
Like warming up on a driving range, investment research and paper trading (where you don’t trade real money) feels relaxed and free of emotion. The numbers make sense, and as you back-test different stocks or funds, it’s clear what has worked and what hasn’t up to that point in time. If you track a stock and it drops, there’s no consequence. You simply move on and watch something else.
But in real markets, as on the golf course, the stakes are higher. When bear markets hit and prices drop, worries like, “What if this stock crashes?” or “What if I miss out?” or “I just lost X dollars” can lead to reactionary decisions that can jeopardize a retirement portfolio’s long-term growth. These choices often include jumping in and out of positions, abandoning long-term plans, or trying to time the market. Most of us can live with our “yips” on the golf course, but with retirement investments mistakes can add up to much larger consequences.
So how can you bring a good investment “swing” from theory into practice? First, you may need to fine-tune your investment mindset.
I once heard a comment from a golf coach that struck me: “I don’t worry about where the ball goes when I swing.” At first, this didn’t make sense. Isn’t the goal to hit great shots that roll up to the target? No, because this approach adds the unescapable pressure of outcome-obsession, which often restricts freedom and relaxation in your swing.
The same principle applies to investing. Trying to control every short-term market outcome only adds stress that leads to mistakes, much like a golfer obsessing over every shot can throw them off their awesome usual swing.
With a thoughtful investment strategy that is based off of a financial plan, prepared investors don’t need to stress over every market movement. Investors with a long-term financial plan have a long-term viewpoint that enables them to see that temporary market declines are actually a good thing. They create the “risk premium” of investing in stocks, which is the excess investment return earned by those who don’t sell in fear, and often, at the worst possible time. History has shown those who stay invested, making subtle changes and rebalancing as needed, can expect to come out ahead over more reactionary investors over the long-term and usually in the short-term.
Thus, your job as an investor isn’t to focus on perfect timing and security selection. It is instead to follow a sound, repeatable process. These Tiger Woods-esque habits include making consistent contributions during working years, broadly diversifying your portfolio so that no one investment is big enough to wreck your portfolio, and developing your goal-based financial plan that will guide your investment strategy and other areas of personal finance.
The planning part will help you during volatile periods. It will help you remain patient when you are craving big wins or fearing losses. No one is immune from these feelings as they are simple human nature. Therefore, it’s key to put trust in a disciplined process and focus on what you can control (planning, saving and investing).
This brings us to one last analogy: a good golfer and a good investor trusts their process because they have prepared for it. As advisors, arguably our greatest value is to keep our clients’ investment strategies on course through all market cycles. Retirement planning is a long game. Your success won’t hinge on a single trade or market trend but rather on the consistency of your approach over time. Whether you can achieve that on your own or with the help of a trusted advisor, if your plan is built on strong principles then good results will follow.
Figuring out where to put new money to work in today’s market can feel overwhelming. Since the 2020 pandemic, the market has been on a tremendous run which has seen the S&P 500 index less than 4% from all-time highs at time of writing. However, many feel caught in the turmoil of uncertainty as the market nervously waits on everything from presidential polls and geopolitical news to the highly anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut and technology sector growth. What gives?
It’s important to remember that big events like these eventually pass. The bears, the bulls, and the overall market sentiment will shift focus to the next issue.
For example, when the pandemic started in 2020, stock markets crashed as workers were sent home and businesses shuttered. The US employment rate spiked to over 10% as the worldwide economy stalled. Now we are in an economy with completely different risks like high inflation and borrowing rates.
Over the last few years of choppy markets, many investors pulled money out of domestic stocks, preferring the relative safety of bonds during a period when bond yields hit historic lows and returns evaporated. This chase for safety pushed many investors into taking less risk than they might have preferred, complicating their efforts to reach their goals. As the economy recovered and stocks rallied steeply, those who moved to safety have found it difficult to find value in a fully priced market.
We have met with others that have a sudden infusion of cash from a business sale or other event that they want to put to work, but find it difficult to invest more into stocks that have already seen meteoric rises in the last few years.
For clients with cash they would like to put to work, whatever the reason, we have found success using the following framework:
Start by discussing your existing asset allocation with a professional advisor. This step ensures that your recommended allocation reflects your financial behavior, risk tolerance, time horizon, and long-term goals. It’s important to take a step back and assess whether your current portfolio still meets your needs or if it’s time to reassess and make adjustments.
Portfolio liquidity is often needed to cover short-term needs, maintain an emergency fund, and limit volatility in your overall portfolio. Determine a liquidity level that makes sense for your situation. From there, develop a long-term asset allocation that balances risk and return.
The key to an effective long-term allocation is creating a strategy that you can stick to, even in turbulent periods. Research shows that staying invested is critical to enjoying long-term returns, as significant market moves often happen in a limited number of days.
Once your asset allocation is established, determine a clear timeline for deploying funds. Cash and money markets can be invested right away to begin capturing yield. Bonds are often deployed quickly since models are aligned with the current interest rate environment.
For stocks, investing cash over a period of time can potentially take advantage of dips in the market and minimize the entry point risk of investing everything all at once. Phasing into stocks over several months or over a year can help mitigate entry-point risk.
For more sophisticated investors, options can be used to hedge entry risk and generate income. For instance, selling covered calls can provide additional income while waiting for the right moment to enter, while protective puts can safeguard against downside risks as you phase into stock positions.
Once your portfolio is in place, regular evaluation is key:
Once you’ve completed these steps, you should have a firm understanding of how your investments should be invested for the long haul.
The best way to overcome the fear of investing in uncertain times is to think long-term, create a solid plan, and stick to it. Markets are often forward-looking and frequently recover before the broader economy shows improvement. Sitting down at the trade desk with a well-structured investment plan will help keep you focused on your long-term goals and prevent emotional reactions to short-term market fluctuations.
Over the course of five or ten years, a diversified portfolio has the potential to significantly outpace inflation, providing meaningful growth. Patience and discipline are often the key differentiators between a successful investment strategy and one derailed by short-term emotions. With the right framework in place, you can ensure that your capital remains productive and resilient, no matter the market conditions.
On July 18, 2024, the IRS issued new regulations that clarify how inherited retirement accounts distributions must be handled. These rules are important for anyone thinking about passing on wealth through IRAs or 401(k)s, as they dictate the timelines and tax implications your beneficiaries will face.
When you leave a retirement account to your beneficiaries, the IRS requires them to take Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) from that account over time. Depending on their relationship to you and the specific type of beneficiary they are, your heirs will face one of three likely scenarios when it comes to withdrawing funds from the inherited retirement accounts:
The IRS’s new regulations are more than just about annual withdrawals. They also include a range of other rules that could impact how you handle your inheritance. Here are other important changes to keep in mind:
With these new regulations in place, it may be worthwhile to revisit how you are structuring your IRAs as part of your estate plan.
Taking the right steps now can help you avoid unnecessary taxes and potentially grow your inheritance more effectively. Whether it’s deciding where to place savings, when to take your RMDs, choosing how to handle a Roth account, or deciding which account type to use for supplemental withdrawals during retirement, it’s a good idea to work closely with your financial advisor and estate planning attorney to ensure that your retirement accounts are structured to meet your goals and to provide your beneficiaries with the best possible outcomes.
If you’re thinking about retirement and are serious about your finances then you need a written retirement plan. Studies show written plans significantly decrease financial stress and increase retirement success. A survey by T Rowe Price states that of the respondents who were 1-5 years from retirement, 45% of them had a written retirement plan in place and 30% intended to get a retirement plan completed. Notably, those with a plan in place tended to be wealthier than those without a formal plan and were also more likely to be working with an advisor.
Every written retirement plan at Inside Edge Capital requires an answer to the following four questions. Then, you can fill in the gaps with strategic planning to increase your bottom line. Today, we’ll cover the core questions:
Whatever your financial situation, it’s important to define your goals so that you can make the proper preparation. Some have a specific retirement date in mind, and some want us to find the earliest date possible. Some clients want to see how different rates of spending and gifting affect their future portfolio. Going back to the survey, 65% of pre-retirees don’t know how much they will be able to withdraw from their savings during retirement. This isn’t great, as overspending could deplete retirement assets early while underspending could impede financial satisfaction.
Through our process, we put together a personal balance sheet and cash flow table, as if your household is its own successful corporation. With careful, competent consideration we can provide the context needed to answer the retirement question and help our clients be more prepared to make those moves.
Once we have the right information in place, we can run the numbers to evaluate how resilient your investments are against various economic conditions. Some may need to get more aggressive to protect against inflation, while others might need to start de-risking their portfolio to maintain liquidity for retirement withdrawals. Going at our client’s pace and education level, we first help you understand these factors in relation to where your portfolio currently stands. Only then do we recommend adjustments to your current asset allocation.
For those who want us to execute a specific allocation as part of their overall portfolio, we will do so after gaining the proper understanding and due diligence of how our managed investments interact with the rest of your portfolio and savings.
Planning for Social Security and Medicare involves understanding the optimal timing for benefits and coverage. Some individuals may benefit from delaying or starting early with Social Security to optimize their monthly payments. The Medicare system is another benefit that should be navigated strategically to avoid premium increases and ensure adequate healthcare coverage. By thoroughly assessing your options with you, we can help you make informed decisions that maximize the options available to you.
Not being tax-efficient with your investments can bite into your returns over time, and the years before and after retirement are arguably the most effective times to utilize tax planning strategies. At Inside Edge Capital, we consider tax strategies like utilizing tax-advantaged accounts, timing asset sales with consideration to the tax implications, and managing your withdrawals in retirement to minimize taxable income. By communicating and implementing tax-efficient strategies, you can keep more of your money working for you.
At Inside Edge Capital, our process reflects our passion for improving retirement outcomes for pre-retirees and retirees. We do additional strategic planning for our clients in all areas of personal finance, but those are articles for another time. This core plan serves as a vital guide and ensures you are making the decisions necessary to be prepared and confident for the future.
Getting a tax break when you sell a declining investment is one of the few upsides of seeing an investment underperform. So, you wouldn’t want to lose that tax break by triggering an IRS rule called a “wash sale”.
A wash sale occurs when an investor sells a security at a loss and then repurchases the same security (or a substantially identical investment) within 30 days before or after the sale.
The intention behind this rule is to discourage investors from selling securities solely for the purpose of generating a tax loss while maintaining their investment in the same or similar security. Under this rule, when wash sales are triggered the investor will carry forward the purchase price of their original investment instead of the newer purchase price.
One unique aspect of the wash sale rule is the concept of “substantially identical securities”. This refers to securities that are nearly identical in terms of their underlying holdings and characteristics. For example, selling shares of one mutual fund and buying shares of another mutual fund with a very similar investment strategy and portfolio could be considered a wash sale. The same applies to selling common stock and buying preferred stock of the same company, or selling bonds and buying new bonds with nearly identical terms. By being aware of the rules, substantially identical securities are relatively straightforward to avoid.
Interestingly, there is currently an exception on wash sale rules for cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are treated as property, not securities, by the IRS. As a result, the wash sale rule does not currently apply to crypto transactions. This means that crypto investors can sell their assets at a loss and repurchase them without waiting 30 days, allowing them to claim a tax-deductible loss while maintaining their investment. It also means that an active investor could sell a stock or fund and buy crypto to avoid wash sale. The crypto property rule might change as regulations evolve, so investors should be cautious and stay informed about any changes.
When a wash sale is triggered, you are able to add the amount of the loss back onto of the cost basis of the replacement security, helping with taxes later. It’s also important to remember that you only pay taxes on what you make. If your overall investment strategy is profitable and a portfolio manager decides to repurchase a sold security within 30 days, the impact of wash sales could be less significant in the grand scheme of the portfolio. Ideally, however, that repurchase could wait until the 31 day mark.
In conclusion, wash sales can affect an investor’s ability to claim losses on their taxes. It’s important to avoid wash sales to optimize portfolio management. Given the complexities of wash sales and many other tax-related investment strategies, it’s essential to consult with a financial planner when you’re wondering about the tax bill on your portfolio investments.
In this article, we reflect on the philosophy of one of the titans of investing: Peter Lynch.
Peter Lynch’s success as an investor is evident in the impressive performance of the Fidelity Magellan Fund under his management. During his tenure from 1977 to 1990, the fund achieved an average annual return of around 29%, significantly outperforming the broader market indices. His ability to identify and invest in successful growth stocks contributed to his reputation as one of the most successful mutual fund managers in history.
Some of Peter Lynch’s wisdom is captured in the following quotes:
“Invest in what you know.”
Personal experience is a powerful tool in the world of investing. By leveraging familiar industries or companies, an investor is better enabled to make well-informed decisions about their capital allocation. As an American wealth management company, we focus our individual stock selection primarily with US companies.
“The best stock to buy may be the one you already own.”
It can be unnerving when a stock you own decreases in value. Like many investors, Lynch’s emphasis on long-term investing draws from both his personal successes and failures. If you still like a stock and its future prospects then it usually works out to be patient and not overreact to short-term fluctuations.
“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.”
“Although it’s easy to forget sometimes, a share is not a lottery ticket… it’s part ownership of a business.”
Lynch points out the importance of distinguishing between price and intrinsic value. Knowing the current market price and technicals without understanding the underlying fundamentals can lead to uninformed investment decisions. Successful investors recognize that a stock’s long-term value is derived from strong fundamentals like financial health, current and future growth prospects, and overall market conditions.
Encouraging clients and prospects to explore opportunities in overlooked or undervalued stocks, Lynch challenges conventional wisdom and opens doors to potential hidden gems in the market.
“Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.”
Ever finish up a task or a chore, and then tell yourself you made that harder than it needed to be? The same thing happens with company leadership. This witty quote highlights the importance of resilience of investments. Over time, management changes are inevitable and a robust business should be able to withstand less-than-ideal leadership. When researching companies to invest in, simplicity and durability are key attributes to look for.
In closing, Peter Lynch’s legacy is not just a tale of remarkable returns. It is an atlas of insights that resonates with both seasoned investors and those at the start of their financial journey. As we reflect on Lynch’s contributions, we are reminded that the journey to financial prosperity involves knowledge, patience, and a touch of contrarian thinking.
Benjamin Graham emphasized the importance of striking a balance between aggressiveness and conservatism in investment.
As an accomplished analyst, investor, and mentor to some guy named Warren Buffett, Graham believed in the concept of “margin of safety,” which involves purchasing securities at a price below their intrinsic value to provide a buffer against potential losses. He also advocated for a middle ground with asset allocation, avoiding extremes in either direction. With this philosophy, Graham earned himself the title of “father of value investing”.
We see Benjamin Graham’s wisdom captured in some of his quotes:
“The essence of investment management is the management of risks, not the management of returns.”
This underscores the importance of thoroughly assessing potential downsides before pursuing potential gains. This includes understanding both the historical volatility and the potential volatility of a portfolio’s investments. Graham stresses that successful investment management revolves around a meticulous handling of risks rather than a myopic focus on returns.
“The intelligent investor is likely to need considerable willpower to keep from following the crowd.”
Here, Graham warns against succumbing to herd mentality, emphasizing the need for independent thinking. The intelligent investor, according to him, resists the impulse to blindly follow market trends and instead relies on individual analysis.
“In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
This highlights the temporary nature of market fluctuations. Graham urges investors to look beyond short-term market sentiment, whether panic or hype, and focus on the long-term intrinsic value of investments and the market as a whole.
“The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.”
This points out the common pitfall of fixating on stock prices without considering the underlying value of investments. This cautionary advice urges investors to assess the fundamentals rather than getting swayed by short-term market movements.
“To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks.”
Here, Graham underscores the challenges of achieving superior investment results, urging investors to approach their endeavors with realistic expectations and a commitment to disciplined analysis.
“The investor’s chief problem—and even his worst enemy—is likely to be himself.”
Graham acknowledges the psychological aspect of investing, recognizing that personal biases and emotions can pose significant challenges. This quote encourages investors to remain self-aware and disciplined in their decision-making.
Benjamin Graham’s words continue to resonate in the investment world, serving as a reminder to execute a value-based approach that balances the risk and reward.
In the world of wealth management, it’s surprising how many wealth builders, from their 30’s to their older years, underestimate the value of a personal financial plan. According to a 2023 Charles Schwab survey, around one-third of Americans have a financial plan for their goals.
Managing your wealth without a financial plan is like flying a plane without a map or navigation tools. Sure, the plane is filled with fuel, the wings and engine are working, and ideally you can see points of reference to guide you along the way. But without a flight plan, how effectively is the plane getting to where it wants to go?
To detail the significance of this invaluable tool, here are five reasons to put a financial plan in place and keep it updated.
Guidance for Life Transitions:
As people find themselves at the crossroads of various life transitions, be it changing jobs and careers, starting a family, sending kids to college, or preparing for retirement, a financial plan provides a roadmap tailored to your unique circumstances, helping you navigate those transitions. From adjusting investment strategies to optimizing tax planning, do your planning in advance so you can avoid missing out on strategic opportunities.
Risk Mitigation and Asset Protection:
A good portfolio manager will mitigate investment risks to the best of their capabilities, but that does not take into account all of the risks a wealth builder experiences. Risk mitigation starts with a diversified investment portfolio, but also includes insurance coverage, estate planning, and many other strategies that are reflective of your specific financial situation.
Reference Point for Financial Decisions:
Financial plans are a living document that should be updated annually or regularly. Making updates and seeing where things are and how things have progressed is a great reference point when making important financial decisions. A financial plan is the friendly reminder that yes, you’re still on the right track to financial success if you make that decision, even if-and-when life presents the occasional detour. And when those detours happen, financial planning is even more useful.
Long-term Investment Success:
Our financial plans are designed to align perfectly with your investment preferences and objectives. A financial plan provides insight to our portfolio management since we will know your current situation, long-term goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. This disciplined approach helps us stay on the same page, helping you feel confident leaving the day-to-day investment management to us.
Peace of Mind and Empowerment:
Perhaps the most underrated aspect of having a comprehensive financial plan is the peace of mind and confidence that originates from knowing you have a well thought roadmap tailored to your specific financial aspirations. As we often say, partnering with us brings the peace of mind that comes with having a plan that is designed to help you achieve your goals. If you spend any time wondering about your financial progress, it will answer your questions and enable you to focus on what’s important to you. A financial plan empowers you to make informed decisions and “get a handle” on a subject that is exhaustive and bewildering to millions of people.
Whether you’re actively managing your portfolio or entrusting it to a financial advisor, having a strategic roadmap for your future is critical. According to Schwab’s survey, of the one-third of Americans who have a financial plan, 7 in 10 said they were more in control of their finances and 9 in 10 were confident they will reach their financial goals.
At IEC we have a Certified Financial Planner ready to help you build a financial plan and put it into action. Without one, you might as well be an airplane pilot with no flight plan.
Success in investing isn’t just about numbers and strategy. It also involves navigating the emotional terrain that comes with financial decision-making. To be a successful investor, how important is it to stay steady and level-headed?
Rash investment decision-making can be detrimental. Whether it’s the fear of a market downturn or the excitement of a potential windfall, emotions can lead investors to make choices that jeopardize their financial well-being. The emotional cycle of investing can result in chasing returns, panic selling, and letting a variety of emotional biases control one’s investment strategy – a recipe for financial disaster.
Maintaining a steady, emotionally resilient attitude despite what is happening in the markets is a lot to ask. But it allows investors to maintain a strategy and ensure that they make well-informed, objective decisions. Investors that can remain objective will approach their investments with a balanced, long-term perspective, making subtle changes as they go through market and economic cycles in order to add value.
But what if you can’t distance yourself emotionally from your investments? Consider enlisting professional assistance.
Many investors rely on wealth advisors to help them stay on track. When an investor enlists an advisor to help them develop a comprehensive plan that aligns with both their current situation and long-term financial goals, research shows the investor is more likely to be successful.
The Dalbar studies have consistently shown that individual investors often underperform the market due to behavioral biases, such as emotional decision-making and sub-optimal market timing.
Vanguard, a prominent investment management company, has conducted research on the value of financial advice. The “Advisor’s Alpha” concept emphasizes the various ways that wealth advisors can add value, including from a behavioral coaching standpoint.
It’s important to note the value of a wealth advisor goes beyond just investment management. Financial planning, tax optimization, retirement planning, and other areas contribute to a well-rounded, comprehensive approach to wealth management.
In the world of investing, not getting lost in the moment is critical in achieving financial success. Those who have mastered investment steadfastness developed it as a skill over the course of their experiences. Other investors may prefer to focus on other pursuits, and enlist wealth advisors to manage their investments. By understanding emotional resilience, investors can secure their financial future and reduce the emotional toll that comes with financial uncertainty.
As we approach the end of the year, it’s essential to turn our attention to strategies that can help reduce your federal tax bill.
Check to see if you qualify for the 0% federal tax rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends. If your taxable income, excluding long-term gains and dividends, falls below $44,625 for single filers, $59,750 for head-of-household filers, or $89,250 for joint filers, then you may benefit from this favorable tax rate. It’s a great way to reduce your tax burden.
If you don’t qualify for the 0% rate, don’t worry – there are still opportunities to save. The 20% rate on long-term capital gains and qualified dividends starts at $492,301 for singles, $523,051 for heads of household, and $553,851 for couples filing jointly. The 15% rate applies to filers with incomes between the 0% and 20% breakpoints.
Business owners have a golden opportunity to save on taxes with first-year 80% bonus depreciation. This allows firms to deduct 80% of the cost of new and used qualifying business assets with a useful life of 20 years or less, provided they are purchased and placed in service by December 31, 2023. This deduction is available temporarily and will phase out in subsequent years.
In 2023, businesses can expense up to $1,160,000 of new or used business assets. This limit phases out if more than $2,890,000 of assets are put into service during the year. The beauty of expensing is that it doesn’t have the same taxable income limitation as bonus depreciation.
There are various tax breaks available for buyers of business vehicles. Pay attention to the first-year cap on depreciation, which varies depending on the type and weight of the vehicle.
If you’re a self-employed individual or the owner of a pass-through entity like an LLC or S corporation, you may be eligible for a 20% deduction on your qualified business income. Be mindful of income limits, and consider adjusting your deductions or income to stay within the thresholds.
Make the most of your annual gift tax exclusion by giving up to $17,000 to each person, or $34,000 if you are married. Recipients do not pay tax on these gifts, and they won’t trigger a gift tax return unless your lifetime gifts exceed $12,920,000. While the lifetime gift exclusion won’t affect most people, this number can be adjusted by Congress and has been lower in the past.
If you want to support your children or grandchildren with their college education, consider paying tuition directly to the school. This payment is nontaxable to the student, doesn’t count against the gift tax exclusion, and reduces your estate. Alternatively, contribute to a 529 plan to shelter significant amounts from gift tax.
When you implement one smart financial planning or tax strategy, it can have a compounding benefit for years to come.
With two months left before the new year, it may be time to focus on reducing your federal tax bill. This might not be everyone’s favorite subject area, but the benefits of doing so can be substantial.
For individual tax filing, look at the overall impact of potential strategies on 2023 and 2024-on. The goal is to be efficient with your taxes now and later. Most benefit by accelerating write-offs and deferring taxable income. Others take the opposite approach. Overall, it depends on your situation. IEC works with clients and with their tax professionals as needed to develop and move efficient tax strategies forward.
People who itemize deductions have the most flexibility in shifting write-offs. People whose deductions put them on the line between itemizing and taking the standard deduction could benefit from bunching itemized deductions every other year, and taking the standard deductions in alternate years.
Increase your 401(k) or other retirement plan to max out your yearly contribution before year end (IRAs have 4/15 deadline). If under the $10,000 cap and if allowed, pay your property tax bill for next year in December of this year in order to deduct it for 2023. If you pay your January 2024 mortgage bill before year-end, you can deduct the interest portion for 2023.
Bunch into 2023 charitable gifts you would normally give over multiple years, maybe with a donor-advised fund account.
When donating to charitable organizations, contribute appreciated property like stocks directly. If you’ve owned property for more than a year, you can deduct its full value when you itemize (in most cases). Neither you nor the charity pay tax on the appreciation if you transfer the property directly.
You can transfer up to $100,000 yearly from IRAs directly to charity, called a qualified charitable distribution. QCD’s count as RMDs, but they’re not taxable and they’re not added to your AGI. This can be a good strategy for taxpayers that take the standard deduction and don’t itemize. Qualified charities are generally 501(c)3 organizations.
If you already have high medical expenses (near or above 7.5% of adjusted gross income), think about incurring additional medical expenses before year end. Refer to IRS Pub. 502 for a list of eligible medicals.
Other quick points:
Contribute the maximum amount allowed to your Health Savings Account (HSA)
When you review previous year returns, review your withholding to ensure you are having the right amount of taxes withheld
Consider a Roth conversion by looking at current year taxes. Generally it’s smart to make a conversion if it’s a relatively low income year and you don’t mind incurring taxable income on the conversion.
Part 2 will cover investments, business taxes, and gifting.
Investing can be an emotional endeavor, especially during a period of changing market climates. Recognizing investor’s emotional biases is the first step towards rationalizing ones decision making and maintaining proper focus on long-term goals and investment strategies. So, what are the most common emotional biases?
One common emotional bias for investors is recency bias, the expectation that recent investment trends will continue into the future. In other words, investors tend to project their current mood into the future. They don’t see how things could deteriorate during a good market, so they buy high. Or, they don’t see how things could get any better in a down market, so they sell at a loss.
For example, out of the ten largest equity inflows since 1998, two occurred at the peak of the tech bubble and two were at the peak of the bubble preceding the financial crisis. Of the ten largest equity outflows, one occurred during the bottom of the tech bubble, and two occurred near the bottom-point of the financial crisis.
By maintaining a long-term investment plan that de-emphasizes short-term fluctuations, investors can focus on their short-, medium-, and long-term goals and not their monthly account performance.
Another emotional phenomenon is loss aversion, or the preferences of those who seek to avoid losses more than they wish to acquire gains. A famous experiment by cognitive psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky showed that participants disliked losses 2 to 3 times more than they enjoyed gains. For example, the average person would be more upset if they lost $20 than they would be happy if they had found $20.
Inside Edge Capital focuses on helping clients decide their level of investment risk through both conversations with you and by utilizing innovative industry tools. This technology is dynamic in that it forces people to answer the difficult question that many investors refrain from ever answering themselves: “How much risk am I capable of handling?”
Knowing that everyone reacts to drops, corrections and crashes differently, we can get ahead of this question to help clients express and understand what their loss threshold is. Seeking to align a client’s portfolio risk with their personal risk tolerance allows our clients to feel comfortable with their expected investment outcomes during any market environment.
A third common emotional bias is anchoring, or placing undue emphasis on a single point of reference. For example, many investors were focused deeply on recent presidential elections. While some were terrified by the results, others were euphoric. An investor’s personal situation, balance sheet, cash flows, portfolio diversification and many other variables should be viewed as more important to how one is investing versus who is the president. However, this single point of reference can skew emotions and decision making.
There are many types of emotional biases that exist in investing that advisors must take into account. Many investors are susceptible to being driven by emotions they believe will help rationalize the markets.
So let’s keep the lines of communication open and flowing, so that we can help you navigate investment markets.
As we pass the 15-year anniversary of the “Financial Crisis”, which marked the USA’s significant market decline that most of us have experienced, we think back on the lessons learned during tough times as we continue to apply those principles today. Here are a few lessons for those who are new to investing and may not have their own firsthand experience to look back on as markets turn volatile.
Lesson 1: Decide on an asset allocation upfront, and stick with it
When we construct an investment strategy for a client, it includes a deep understanding of our client’s wealth goals, or their finish line. The strategy also considers our client’s tolerance to emotionally accept the expected volatility of the portfolio, during both good and challenging market cycles. We find this disciplined approach to individual portfolio construction helps to eliminate some emotional aspects of investing, which can result in poor performance.
When there is uncertainty in the market, volatility typically increases. Most often the volatility is short-lived and changes to allocation and risk is unnecessary. But if a well understood strategy is not in place, an investor may react by changing risk at the exact wrong time.
To avoid a pitfall like that, taking steps to understand the cause of the volatility and identifying ways to mitigate risk or take advantage of market opportunities is a much better strategy.
Long-term success in investing is accomplished with primarily subtle moves which support a thoughtfully prepared strategy.
Lesson 2: Diversify assets and Avoid lagging investments
The financial crisis highlighted the importance of diversifying your assets to mitigate risk. For example, investment portfolios that were heavily weighted in financial company stocks during this time took a more substantial downturn than a portfolio invested across multiple sectors and markets. This larger decline in financials was the result of a slowing economy, a credit crunch, and problems with mortgage assets which these financial companies held. By distributing assets among many different asset classes, regions, sectors and styles, while also being willing to avoid unfavorable investments entirely, an investor can reduce unsystematic risk and avoid unnecessary volatility.
Lesson 3: Keep line of communication open
As with all successful relationships, communication is the key. And especially when times are uncertain. We have found that delivering honest and realistic market outlooks to our clients has helped them avoid emotional decisions that could be detrimental to long term success. Open lines for communication also allows clients to voice their concerns and perhaps communicate changes in their life that may need adjustments to portfolio risk.
It is important to have open and honest communication with your advisor before times of uncertainty and heightened market volatility. This allows you to build a solid strategy to meet your wealth needs and keep you on track if, and when, the markets get rough.
So you’re about to hit the golden years and retirement is on the horizon. There is a lot to be excited about, but also the realization that you may no longer generate income and will instead rely on investments and Social Security. For some, this psychological shift can evoke a sense of insecurity.
We have often observed how investors, in times of market volatility, can become emotionally invested and as a result, choose to make decisions based on sentiment rather than strategy. In fact, research has shown that people are more risk-averse than they are opportunistic. This tendency can lead investors to falling victim to sensational headlines and making hasty decisions, missing out on sustained returns in the process.
Over the years, the notion of passive investing has often been touted as a safe bet. However, our position challenges this conventional thought. We don’t think that’s the best fit for everyone, particularly for seasoned investors nearing retirement who have grown their portfolios themselves, but no longer want to manage their own investments.
When this type of investor wants to offload their investment management responsibilities, they tend to want an investment manager who is watching the market and isn’t limited to sitting passively through a decline.
Our advice is simple – determine your risk appetite’s maximum threshold. Once identified, our proactive method will assist in mitigating those risks, a process incorporating the avoidance of lagging asset classes and regions. This two-pronged strategy is fundamental in ensuring you can invest your money confidently without the looming concern of unnecessary risks.
In conclusion, our advocated stance is that of active, diversified investing, a balance struck between astute risk management and potential profit optimization. We firmly believe that this approach goes a long way in procuring a secure and confident retirement phase, serving as a firm foundation to safeguard one’s hard-earned savings.